Gold (GLD) is closing the gap it made two days ago. But, gold vol is (up on the day) but in a declining trend. Here's a chart and summation of strategy:
I'm not worried about the XOP iron condor at all; OVX is declining and I'm very far away from the market on both sides. The SPY iron condor worries me a little because of that three day rally we just had. Stocks are about back to even right now, and even still I've made ~0.08 on the spread. That's good news - vol is dropping. Even after a three day rally of 10 points on the SPY, I'm only down about 0.10 on the position. Not bad at all.
Should things get worse, rolling up to the bounce point (180-181) would be a good move. I'm still kicking myself for not playing that rally, but hey, these things happen. I still have confidence in this position.
I haven't made any new trades because I like to keep most of my capital in cash. You never know what can happen with options, and they're fast moving. Plus, volatility tends to be correlated across markets. My strategies don't make money if realized volatility exceeds implied volatility. Therefore, selling too much vol can blow up in your face, and if I have too many positions on, I can blow the account up pretty quickly. I prefer to risk about 3-5% of the account on any one position for a maximum of 15-20% of the account at risk at any given time. That way if something catastrophic happens, I've still got 80% of my capital.
Summary:
GLD
- DTE : 30
- IVP : 65
- PoP : 59.68% (down from 69.24%)
XOP
- DTE : 36
- IVP : 72
- PoP : 61.11% (up from 50.78%)
SPY
- DTE : 36
- IVP : 33
- PoP : 64.59% (up from 60%)
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