FXE - April-1 102/105/110/113 iron condor filled at 0.95 (mark was 0.98)
- IVP : 66
- DTE : 40
- PoP : 56.47%
Stocktwits ~
$FXE FILLED APR-1 iron condor 102/105/110/113 @ 0.95
— Brandon Powers (@BrandonP) Feb. 22 at 03:18 PM
Chart ~
IV is on the rise in the GBP and Euro because the United Kingdom might leave the European Union. That would be a big deal because the UK is one of the largest economies in Europe. However, because they aren't part of the Euro Area (countries who use the Euro as a currency) than the effect shouldn't be all that much on the Euro itself. Plus, the actual referendum is not until June 23. IV is likely to fall in the short term, even if Mario Draghi at the ECB decides to boost stimulus. They don't meet until March 10, allowing 16 days to pass (theta decay) beforehand. The 56% PoP is misleading then in these respects; I believe it has a higher PoP, probably 65%-68%.
Now, onto SPY/SPX
We got to 1945-1950 on the SPX. That was anticipated, and it's pretty stiff resistance, having been there once already and failing. I don't think we'll break out. Volume today is lower than it was on the rallying days last week, and right at resistance. That doesn't signal confidence that we'll go higher to me. We're likely to stay range bound in the low 1900s for a couple weeks, I think. Nothing is signalling a risk-on environment in the markets right now, other than pure technicals. My palms are a little sweaty in regards to the SPY position, but I'm still not too worried. Like I said last time, SPY has risen twelve points now, but the position has only lost 0.16 (sold @ 0.63, mark = 0.79).
In addition, the VIX is hitting a support line, just under 20. Maybe it's time for volatility to rise again?
Charts ~
SPY
VIX
IV is on the rise in the GBP and Euro because the United Kingdom might leave the European Union. That would be a big deal because the UK is one of the largest economies in Europe. However, because they aren't part of the Euro Area (countries who use the Euro as a currency) than the effect shouldn't be all that much on the Euro itself. Plus, the actual referendum is not until June 23. IV is likely to fall in the short term, even if Mario Draghi at the ECB decides to boost stimulus. They don't meet until March 10, allowing 16 days to pass (theta decay) beforehand. The 56% PoP is misleading then in these respects; I believe it has a higher PoP, probably 65%-68%.
Now, onto SPY/SPX
We got to 1945-1950 on the SPX. That was anticipated, and it's pretty stiff resistance, having been there once already and failing. I don't think we'll break out. Volume today is lower than it was on the rallying days last week, and right at resistance. That doesn't signal confidence that we'll go higher to me. We're likely to stay range bound in the low 1900s for a couple weeks, I think. Nothing is signalling a risk-on environment in the markets right now, other than pure technicals. My palms are a little sweaty in regards to the SPY position, but I'm still not too worried. Like I said last time, SPY has risen twelve points now, but the position has only lost 0.16 (sold @ 0.63, mark = 0.79).
In addition, the VIX is hitting a support line, just under 20. Maybe it's time for volatility to rise again?
Charts ~
SPY
VIX
Yep. I was pretty much bang on. Now I'm sweating this GLD position!
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