Friday, June 24, 2016

You've Heard What Happened.

I'm sorry, I think the reaction to the news is a bit overdone. The Pound is tanking, the Dollar is surging, and stock markets around the world are plummeting. For ... what? Anything beaten up that badly will likely rebound strongly over the next few months. People were looking for a reason to sell, I guess. I fail to see how this is a HUGE deal for the European economy, on its own, and doubly how it remotely affects our own economy, on its own. What results in terms of potential domino effects, etc, are all speculative. The event on its own ... I don't see it having much of a real, lasting impact. However, I have conducted little research on the topic. From what I can tell by the reaction of the losing side, the decision was made based on immigration policy disputes, not of anything economic.

So, the VIX is up to 25 again, the highest it has been since January and February. Well, I got what I wanted, increased volatility! So come Monday, I'll be out on the hunt for good opportunities once again using my traditional techniques.

With the Fed very, very likely to avoid a rate hike for the next 6 months (December would be the time to do it...?), volatility should contract somewhat swiftly. I don't see it taking the stairs down, so to speak, as it did from February to April.

It's good to be back; I haven't originated a new position since April 28th. Wow!

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